Litt om havnivåstigning

IPCC (Klimapanelet) har hevdet at havnivået vil stige stadig sterkere grunnet våre CO2-utslipp. Målinger tyder ikke på at heller ikke denne spådommen har noe med virkeligheten å gjøre.

Målinger av havnivået ved kysten av Hawaii ( Captain Cook ) siden 1992 viser noe helt annet enn det skremselspropagandaen forteller oss:

En rimelig fersk fagfellevurdert studie som har benyttet seg av både satellitter og landbaserte målepunkter har funnet sterke indikasjoner på at havnivået i stor grad er drevet av en naturlig, 60-års oscillasjon.

Sitat: "Over the last decade numerous papers have commented on the appearance of decadal and longer period fluctuations in select tide gauge records... And in their own study of long tide gauge records in every ocean basin, Chambers et al. find that there is, indeed, "a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th century."...they rightly state that the 60-year oscillation does change "our interpretation of the trends when estimated over periods less than one-cycle of the oscillation." And, therefore, they conclude that "although several studies have suggested the recent change in trends of global sea level rise reflects an acceleration, this must be re-examined in light of a possible 60-year oscillation [italics and bold added]," in further support of which contention they note that "there have been previous periods where the rate was decelerating..."

Ut over disse 60-års-svingningene kan man vel si at den eventuelle, stabile havnivåstigningen vi ellers opplever er for peanuts å regne i forhold til hva som har forekommet tidligere:

Referanser:

“Is there a 60-year oscillasjon in global sea level?”: Geophysical Research Letters Volume 39, Issue 18, September 2012

Fleming, Kevin, Paul Johnston, Dan Zwartz, Yusuke Yokoyama, Kurt Lambeck and John Chappell (1998). "Refining the eustatic sea-level curve since the Last Glacial Maximum using far- and intermediate-field sites". Earth and Planetary Science Letters 163 (1-4): 327-342.

Fleming, Kevin Michael (2000). Glacial Rebound and Sea-level Change Constraints on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Australian National University. PhD Thesis.

Milne, Glenn A., Antony J. Long and Sophie E. Bassett (2005). "Modelling Holocene relative sea-level observations from the Caribbean and South America". Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (10-11): 1183-1202.